Filters apply to the decision charts, the coach chart and the two-point tries.
Every decision
Click a dot to pin its details and open the game on ESPN.
Game by game
Week
Win probability given up, season to date
Coaches, season to date
Who goes, and when
All coaches as a table
What the model says, everywhere on the field
Score difference
Game clock
Who they trust
Does the leverage fee move with trust?
Leverage fee by season
How stable each trust measure is, season to season
Two-point tries
How often coaches go, by how far the model favours going
Click a dot to pin its details and open the game on ESPN.
ESPN's model
ESPN's public play feed carries only its win probability for each play; its fourth-down recommendations are not published per play, so there is nothing to compare against here.